Thursday, August 30, 2007
Hoping for Whipsaws
Strange as it sounds, my current trading system has me looking forward to days with extreme price swings, or whipsaws, which I used to anticipate with dread. The key to this change in perspective was shifting my strategy from primarily trend-based trading to a system that looks for profits in ranging behavior as well. The result is that a whipsaw no longer looks like one of the nastiest patterns on the chart, but instead is a potential opportunity to grab some easy pips as the market swings within a semi-predictable range.One essential part of my whipsaw-friendly strategy is a take-profit target of just 33% of the previous day's trading range in whatever direction I place the trade. Using a fairly modest limit order like this dramatically increases the chances that a wildly ranging day will also be a profitable one. By combining this take-profit strategy with a significantly wider stop-loss, my trades also allow for swings in the wrong direction that reverse and come back around to hit the take-profit a lot more often than they're taken out by the stop-loss.Whether this strategy will work over the long-term is still an unanswered question (just like it is for any trading system) but results in both backtesting and live trading so far look good. I'll provide a periodic update on how the system's working (or not working) after it's logged some more live trades. Now bring on the whipsaws!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment